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Greek Philosophy from Greggy the Greek,

WHAT ARE THE ODDS ON THAT?

Seeing how Halloween just passed and how much I enjoyed being a Philosopher for Halloween in the spirit of Aristotle and Plato, I thought I would give you some points to ponder!

How many of us know someone who say's they wont go into the Ocean for fear of being eaten by a shark? I wonder also how many of those people also buy lottery tickets? Being that I have a pythagorian love of math and statistics, let us look at this puzzle posed purely mathematically.

For instance the probability of someone dying (or being very seriously injured) in a Automobile are at 85 to 1. We have also heard some folks say that you aren't even safe in your own home, and looking at the statistics, there is an 11,000 to 1 chance that you could die in your very own bathtub!! Just minding your business and not doing anything at all you still run a 1 in 38,000 chance that you can get hit (and likely killed) by lightning!

Now back to our Fishy Friends, did you know that the odds of getting attacked by a Shark are over 1,000,000 to 1. Even with odds like that if you are that "one in a million" special person, and were to even meet a certain Great White flavor of said fish, you odds of getting killed by that fish are much greater, as Sharks really don't eat people, they can confuse us with fish or seals, and may take a bite but invariable wind up spitting us out once they realize we are just not fatty or fishy-tasting enough! So really your odds of getting KILLED by shark are like in the 10,000,000 to 1 neighborhood, give or take a few million! Now with odds like that I wonder how many of our fishily frightened friends also refuse to take a shower and/or drive/ride in a car, which at worst are over 100 times more likely to occur!

Now stack the odds of getting killed by a shark, next to the odds of hitting the lottery. The lottery odds may vary from state to state and game to game, but they are all clearly posted at any lottery dispensing site. In Florida for instance the odds of winning the Lotto are right about 23,000,000 to 1. 23,000,000 to one, that is like 20 times less likely to happen than to get eaten by a shark!! Yet I wonder how many of these same fish fearers are buying lottery tickets religeously. Probably some smelly(from not bathing) and tired (from walking everywhere) people!

Hmmm, being that I am a gambler, looking at the odds, one has to consider the payoff. So if you do happen to beat the 23,000,000 to 1 odds of winning the lotto, what is the payoff? Usually about 4,000,000. WOW, how can I get in on action like that where you only have to pay off a wager at less than 20% of the risk. Heck even some of the worst slot machines (one-armed bandits!) still give back about 60-80% of what they take in, many of them 80% or better, and yet they are still illegal. Even some of the most common disasters like a car accident, are still looking at only a 1.1% chance of having to pay off, and thanks to the government lap dogs, they just keep adding loopholes where by the one party won't have to pay (seat belt laws ring a bell to anyone? Click-it or tick-et!) Now that is some gambling action I would like to take, sure beats the 50/50 shot of winning a football wager. Ahhh but there is action on such things, it's called INSURANCE, and that racket and the government lotto are probably the biggest BOOKIES in the country... funny thing and the government spends its time worrying about some online bookies who pay out at about 47% clip,(and passing legislation against these guys, deceptively as a SAFE PORT SECURITY Act and calling these types of "insurance agents" terrorists!) and calls them the crooks! Now they are all calling me wanting my vote on Tuesday... what are the odds on that??

Some Philosophy huh? Well what do you want from an old Greek wearing a sheet!

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