Friday, August 13, 2004
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Some people think I am crazy cause my Online NFL Website,
The NFL EDGE PICKS PRESEASON GAMES.
Well there is a method to my madness.
COACHES.
When it comes to preseason the only KNOWN thing about Preseason games is the Coach. They do have distinctive styles. Some guys PLAY THESE GAMES TO WIN. THey may do so with BACK-UPS but it helps to know who is actually TRYING to win and who is just enjoying another day on the job (while hes got it)
Other guys who really are clueless, and could care less about preseason. They rarely if ever play starters and lets say find themselves in a situation like Denver was in Scoring a TD and trailing by two - these guys would just kick the extra point and end the game rather than to play for 2 and OT.
So it helps to know WHO these guys are and THAT will lead to [Dollarsign]MONEY[Dollarsign] in the preSeason.
Bottom Feeders
Guys like Marv Levy, and Jim Fassel,
routinely go 0-4 in 1-3 in the preseason, and could care less about exhibition games.
THeres a few NEW VERSIONS of these guys:
Dave Wannstedt - a career .400 record in the pre-season, he is considered a preseason mush - bet against him and you got 60% chance of winning.
Lately with Miami hes had vetran teams and he rarely plays them more than a series or two -- last game before regular season is almost a lock to lose.
Ahhh but watch out [Wide-Eyed] for this - Vegas catches these trends too, and lately has been pinning his team as underdogs, AS AN UNDERDOG WANSTEDT IS 14-8 = 64%, also to note Wanstedt is about 30% at home and 50% on the road, so as a road dog.....
Anyway hes solid guy to bet against.
Steve Mariucci - Even better career .380 record in the pre-season, he is considered another solid guy to bet AGAINST. Especially if you have to lay take points, a 3-10 record 23% against the spread as favorites, you definatly wanna grab any dogs playing his teams. Caution though - as Detroit still has a young team, he has been playing front line types more since being with the Lions, still ultimately the guy could care less about the final score(in pre-season), and it shows!
Herman Edwards - A somewhat less tenured guy yet his 39% (9-14) winning percentage in the pre-season is of note. Curiously enough, he is 5-1 as a road underdog. Take that out of the mix and his win percentage drops down to 23%
If that holds up this year theres some coin to be made on that!
Andy REID - Although not quite in the category of these other guys, and he has had a lot of depth in his tenure as a head coach. This leads to a respectable 10-9 preseason mark - barely over 50% but whats curious is the home record, 2-7 (22%) and compared with the 8-2 (80%) road mark in the preseason, definately some trendy stuff there.
The Sharks
These guys want to win, anyway anychance, anyhow.
Losing in any form is aking to kissing Saddam, pretty ugly!
Bill Parcells - the Godfather. Hes on record saying he wants to WIN!
"If were playing a game, I want to win." He believes only in winning. With the Giants he was known to play starters like Phil Simms into the third quarter. He believes it sets the tone and attitude for his players. LOSING IS NEVER ACCEPTABLE, NEVER.
His 65% winning percentage in the preseason bears this out.
Yet even as they all know Bills inclinatin to go for Ws, his teams still COVER
73% of the time as favorites in the pre-season. If theres anything solid to bet on at all in the preseason, Cowboy Bill is the Man.
Brian Billick - Another guy who just plays to win. Including the other nights romp over Atlanta, Billick clocks in at 65% A.T.S. in the preseason, and some gaudy 70% as favorites, Baltimore is usually loaded defensively and the Defenses really dominate early on when teams are just getting acclimated to new players, or in many cases looking at marginal guys.
Mike Shanahan - You though I was just pulling stuff outta the air when I picked Denver in the hall of fame game. Career Shanahan has won 71% in the preseason, and an UNREAL 83% at HOME!!! 83%!?!? Hes also at 80% as an underdog in the preseason, so naturally he flopped as a 2.5 pt dog in the hall of fame game when I dropped a couple bucks on him, naturally!
Although to tell the truth - had he just kicked the extra point and settled for the LOSS by 1, I would have covered and felt like a ruddy genius!
Bill Bellichek- A parcells disciple who subscribes to the same theories. Bellichek is checking in at 67% both straight up and against the spread in his career with Cleveland and now New England. Throw in the talent he has on the Defense in New England (where he's at 69%) and that trend should hold up again.
Dennis Green - Likes to get his guys going in the preseason too. Sure he had some good Minnesota teams in the past where he compiled a 65% mark, and a RIDICULOUS 82% at home. Now hes with the Cardinals, one of the BEST PRE-SEASON TEAMS BAR NONE.
The Cards were 4-0 last year and are like 85% Over like the last few year. The Arizona heat in mid August no doubt plays a role in that, and with Dennis Green at the helm, dont laugh at the little red bird this time of year.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2004
It was a pretty lazy Summer Saturday where I didn't feel like doing very much.
I didn't feel very social, and I didn't even feel like talking to anyone.
To be honest its becoming more and more of an effort to even go out to the local "watering hole" lately. I just don't feel like socializing at all.
So the only "watering hole" I was near, was the big one in my back yard.
My back yard, yeah what can I say about it, its nice. Have a look:
Walking along the docks, peering into the water - I picked out a spot where I saw lots of activity among the little fish.
For where there are little fishes the bigger ones aren't that far away.
Yeah that was pretty much what I was doing on this particular Saturday night.
Fish watching. Just grab a seat somewhere the light hits the water and you can see a little bit of whats going on below. In this case I had a pretty good view of a decent area illuminated by the dock lighting.
I grabbed a seat, relaxed and started watching the show.
The little fish were swarming and buzzing about in the light. Like a heard of Impalas on the plains of the African continent, they swarmed together rapidly changing directions in unison and moving en mass. As my eyes adjusted to the lighting I could see more and more action beneath the surface.
Lurking there on the fringes of where the light from the lamp reached were several long thin fish, little bigger than the little fish, with long snoots. Predatory fish no doubt every once in a while one would dart toward the swarming little fish, sometimes causing a small splish splash of the water.
They reminded me of the Lions on the plains, just sitting on the outskirts of a herd, watching for the weak or weary who cant keep up, waiting to "naturally select" them for removal.
Just then these large silver Tarpon came gliding along into view. Three of these guys were swimming along together, reminding me of a couple burley of Harley Bikers rolling down the street during spring break full of teenagers. They really weren't looking at all the action going on around them just grooving on through, yet notice was served that the Tarpon are there and the other fish just kinda eased out of their way.
As I was mesmerized by the shine and grace of the mighty Tarpon, my peaceful state was interrupted by a "puh puh" sort of sound. It came from nearby, but I couldn't quite tell from where. There it was again. "Puh, Puh" sounded like someone trying to say PUNT but unable to - and stuttering a bit with the first syllable.
Then I saw what made that sound, just about five feet away from where I was sitting I could see the shadow of a dorsal fin break the surface of the water. The PUH sound was the opening of the blowhole of an Atlantic Bottlenose Dolphin. He was only a few feet from where I was sitting, no pack just a single dolphin, he was swimming leisurely along, cause I have seen these fish really cruising along when they choose to. He hung around and circled about for a bit, sometimes dipping below the surface and then resurfacing announced by the PUH - PUH of his breathing. It was a magical moment there in the Miami moonlight, one that no amount of socializing at a bar and drinking can compare to. I think he knew I was there. He may have been interested in the fish, or maybe he was doing just the same thing I was. As our paths crossed, We connected there for a small sliver of time in this vast universe, just for this one moment. It was a moment to cherish, and as uneventful as the whole of my weekend was, this made up for it. It was certainly much more interesting than spending the evening in a smoky bar room watching other people get drunk!
Id rather be "swimming with the fishes"!
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